It's a box office bloodbath this weekend, with Disney's Moana and Warner Bros.' Evil Dead Burn both opening well below expectations. The outlook is particularly dire for Moana, with its massive budget of $200-250 million and an opening weekend in the $42 million range. This is a stark comparison to Disney's previous flop, Snow White, which also opened to $42 million and went on to gross just over $200 million worldwide, resulting in a loss of over $100 million. The good news for Disney is that Dwayne Johnson's international box office clout could help Moana perform better overseas, but the film's CinemaScore of A- is only fair for a family movie.
The surprise underperformer is Evil Dead Burn, which was expected to open with $23 million but is now projected to gross only $15 million, almost $10 million less than the previous Evil Dead Rise. This underperformance raises questions about Warner Bros.' summer release strategy for New Line-branded genre titles, especially with the underperformance of Mortal Kombat 2 in May. Sandwiched between these two films are Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5, with $21 million and $19 million, respectively, but Minions & Monsters is falling 43% week over week, which is a decent result.
A24's expansion of Olivia Wilde's The Invite is also underperforming, with only $4.3 million expected over the weekend despite excellent reviews. It's just behind Angel Studios' Young Washington, which dropped 64% in its second weekend with an estimated $7 million gross. While Young Washington opened on par with Sound of Freedom, the latter saw its grosses increase by 39% in its second weekend, indicating better staying power.
The box office run of Supergirl continues to be horrific, with only $3.8 million expected over the weekend and a domestic gross of about $66 million by the end of the weekend. This is not a good result for James Gunn's new DCU. With these underperformances, the studios are facing a challenging weekend, and the industry is left to wonder what went wrong and how to improve future strategies.
In my opinion, the underperformance of these films highlights the importance of strategic release planning and understanding the target audience. While Moana and Evil Dead Burn may have had high production costs, the lack of strong CinemaScores and the underperformance of similar films suggest that the studios may need to reconsider their marketing and release strategies. The industry is at a crossroads, and these underperformances serve as a reminder that even big-budget films can struggle if they don't resonate with audiences. It's a lesson that the studios will need to learn from as they navigate the ever-evolving landscape of the box office.
